Repatriating Afghan Refugees from Pakistan

Background, Implications, and Consequences for Bilateral Relations and Regional Dynamics

Abstract

This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the Pakistani government’s current policy regarding the repatriation of Afghan refugees from Pakistan. This comes amidst opposition from the Afghan Taliban government, humanitarian and human rights organizations, and activists. In October 2023, the Pakistani government announced a massive repatriation initiative, targeting over 1.7 million undocumented Afghan refugees. After escalating attacks on Pakistani security forces within its borders and a perceived reluctance to address the threat posed by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), this was later extended to all refugees. These developments have significantly heightened tensions along the Afghan border – the Durand Line – and have witnessed Pakistani jet fighters making incursions into Afghanistan to target suspected safe havens. The primary objective of this research is to explain the factors contributing to the deteriorating situation along the 2,640km border, and its implications for trade and bilateral relations between the two countries of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Furthermore, this study not only examines Pakistan's strategy of pressuring the Afghan Taliban government through policies of apprehension, incarceration, and forced expulsion but also analyzes the concerns of international humanitarian bodies, questions of demography, human rights organizations, and human rights activists opposing the expulsion of refugees in light of the deteriorating economic and human rights situation in Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover and the withdrawal of Coalition forces from Afghanistan, which occurred as of August 15, 2021. The forced repatriation of Afghan refugees is a crucial issue that demands comprehensive research. In addition, the socio-economic burdens on Pakistan’s vulnerable economy are considerable. The research also covers the historical context of refugee movements in the region, the role of international organizations, and the principles guiding the repatriation processes. In such a scenario, what would be the socio-political and economic impacts of the forced repatriation of Afghan refugees on Pakistan-Afghan bilateral relations and the broader regional stability in South Asia? To address this, the study incorporates the perceptions of Afghans who fled to Pakistan after the Taliban takeover in 2021 as well as the political imperatives of Pakistan’s government behind 2023 exodus.